SMALL ADVANTAGE TO CLINTON – AT 11:30 P.M. ET:  What I do after a debate, aside from pondering my own reaction, is check a number of reactions across the internet.  The overall impression I'm getting, and I agree, is this:  On style, demeanor, "presidential image" and preparation, the ribbon goes to Clinton.  She was ready, she was poised, she had great hair and makeup, and she remembered to moderate a voice that is periodically out of control.  Trump was not terrible, but seemed agitated, a bit sneering, and not exactly the picture of a wise, thoughtful president.  It was that good image he should have gone for, and he didn't bother.

On substance, Clinton knew more, but what she knew wasn't always accurate.  Murder is up in New York, and members of her campaign team were active in promoting a kind of birtherism against Obama in 2008.  Iran was not weeks away from a nuclear weapon when she heroically stepped in to organize an anti-Iran coalition.  Problem is, she sounded more informed than Trump.

On balance I'd give a small victory to Clinton, but enough of one to put an election away.  People who were for Trump will still be for Trump.  People who will be for Clinton will still be for Clinton.  I think some independents might tilt more toward Clinton than before, and I think she might have pulled back some voters who were drifting toward a third-party candidate.

Both candidates failed in what they had to do to land a knockout:   Trump did not cut the image of a president, and Clinton could not show that she would actually improve the country.

BULLETIN:  First poll just out, from CNN, held, by about a 2 to 1 margin, that Clinton won.   Of course, CNN watchers are probably mostly Democrats.  We'll wait for other polls.

September 26,      2016